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FK Minyor Pernik vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
FT
3 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
8/25/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 4Stadion Minyor (Pernik)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Minyor Pernik79%
×Draw14%
Velbazhd7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Minyor Pernik
2.52
Velbazhd
0.61

FK Minyor Pernik creates 313% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Minyor Pernik
2.25
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

FK Minyor Pernik
0.73
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Minyor Pernik ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Minyor Pernik or draw
93%
FK Minyor Pernik or Velbazhd
86%
Draw or Velbazhd
21%

Winning margin

FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
56%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
92%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
71%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
45%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
46%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
13%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
92%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Minyor Pernik at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.73 · 44 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Minyor Pernik attack 2.25 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.52

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

FK Minyor Pernik scores more
79%
level
14%
Velbazhd scores more
7%

FK Minyor Pernik at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: FK Minyor Pernik 3–0 Velbazhd

FK Minyor Pernik beat Velbazhd 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Minyor (Pernik).