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Velbazhd vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
0 – 0
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
9/19/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 7Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd19%
×Draw22%
Chavdar Etropole59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
0.98
Chavdar Etropole
1.90

Chavdar Etropole creates 94% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 87 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
41%
Velbazhd or Chavdar Etropole
78%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
81%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
7%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
62%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
26%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
8%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
85%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
56%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
25%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.98

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Velbazhd scores more
19%
level
22%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
59%

Chavdar Etropole at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Velbazhd 0 – 0 Chavdar Etropole

Velbazhd and Chavdar Etropole drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.