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Chavdar Etropole vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
2 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
4/20/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 28Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chavdar Etropole76%
×Draw16%
Velbazhd8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.44
Velbazhd
0.67

Chavdar Etropole creates 264% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
92%
Chavdar Etropole or Velbazhd
84%
Draw or Velbazhd
24%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
53%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
91%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
70%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
43%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
49%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
15%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
90%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.44

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
76%
level
16%
Velbazhd scores more
8%

Chavdar Etropole at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chavdar Etropole 2 – 0 Velbazhd

Chavdar Etropole beat Velbazhd 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar (Etropole).