Velbazhd 1–2 Botev Ihtiman: Result & Stats

Velbazhd

FT

1 – 2

Botev Ihtiman

4/13/2019

Third League - Southwest · Round 27Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd27%

×Draw25%

Botev Ihtiman48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VelbazhdExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.62

Velbazhd

1.15

Botev Ihtiman

1.62

Botev Ihtiman creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 132 away

0.62

creates per match

0.98

2.26

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Velbazhd

0.62

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

Velbazhd

2.26

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw

52%

Velbazhd or Botev Ihtiman

75%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

73%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+

11%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals

68%

Velbazhd 2+ goals

32%

Velbazhd 3+ goals

11%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

80%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

48%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)

36%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Velbazhd scores more

27%

level

25%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

48%

Botev Ihtiman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff