Botev Ihtiman 4–2 Velbazhd: Result & Stats

Botev Ihtiman

FT

4 – 2

Velbazhd

10/14/2018

Third League - Southwest · Round 10Gradski stadion (Ihtiman)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Botev Ihtiman67%

×Draw19%

Velbazhd14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev IhtimanExpected goals in this matchVelbazhd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.90

Botev Ihtiman

2.21

Velbazhd

0.90

Botev Ihtiman creates 146% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 34 away

1.63

creates per match

0.50

1.29

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.63

Velbazhd

0.50

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman

1.29

Velbazhd

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Velbazhd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw

86%

Botev Ihtiman or Velbazhd

81%

Draw or Velbazhd

33%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

43%

Velbazhd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

89%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

65%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

38%

Velbazhd 1+ goals

59%

Velbazhd 2+ goals

23%

Velbazhd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

83%

Velbazhd (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more

67%

level

19%

Velbazhd scores more

14%

Botev Ihtiman at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff