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Velbazhd vs Belasitsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 1
Belasitsa
Belasitsa
3/2/2019Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 19Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd19%
×Draw24%
Belasitsa57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
0.84
Belasitsa
1.69

Belasitsa creates 101% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Belasitsa
1.11

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Belasitsa
1.06

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Belasitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Belasitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
43%
Velbazhd or Belasitsa
76%
Draw or Belasitsa
81%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
6%
Belasitsa wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
57%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
21%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
5%
Belasitsa 1+ goals
82%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
50%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
24%
Belasitsa (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Belasitsa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Belasitsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Belasitsa attack 1.11 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Velbazhd scores more
19%
level
24%
Belasitsa scores more
57%

Belasitsa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 1–1 Belasitsa

Velbazhd and Belasitsa drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil)).