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Belasitsa vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Belasitsa
Belasitsa
FT
4 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
11/7/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 14Stadion Kolarovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Belasitsa79%
×Draw14%
Velbazhd7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belasitsa
2.63
Velbazhd
0.66

Belasitsa creates 298% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 34 away

creates per match

Belasitsa
2.47
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Belasitsa
0.81
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Belasitsa+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belasitsa ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Belasitsa or draw
93%
Belasitsa or Velbazhd
86%
Draw or Velbazhd
21%

Winning margin

Belasitsa wins by 2+
57%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Belasitsa 1+ goals
93%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
73%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
48%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
48%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
14%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Belasitsa (draw refunded)
92%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belasitsa at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belasitsa attack 2.47 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.63

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Belasitsa defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Belasitsa scores more
79%
level
14%
Velbazhd scores more
7%

Belasitsa at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belasitsa vs Velbazhd

Belasitsa beat Velbazhd 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kolarovo in Kolarovo.