Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Velbazhd vs Bansko — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 0
Bansko
Bansko
10/3/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 9Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd23%
×Draw25%
Bansko52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
0.99
Bansko
1.62

Bansko creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 129 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Bansko
0.98

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Bansko
1.36

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Bansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
48%
Velbazhd or Bansko
75%
Draw or Bansko
77%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
8%
Bansko wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
63%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
26%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
8%
Bansko 1+ goals
80%
Bansko 2+ goals
48%
Bansko 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
31%
Bansko (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.99

Bansko attack 0.98 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Velbazhd scores more
23%
level
25%
Bansko scores more
52%

Bansko at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 1–0 Bansko

Velbazhd beat Bansko 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.