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Bansko vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
1 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
4/10/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 26Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bansko71%
×Draw18%
Velbazhd11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
2.21
Velbazhd
0.74

Bansko creates 199% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
89%
Bansko or Velbazhd
82%
Draw or Velbazhd
29%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
47%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
89%
Bansko 2+ goals
65%
Bansko 3+ goals
38%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
52%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
17%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
86%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bansko scores more
71%
level
18%
Velbazhd scores more
11%

Bansko at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Bansko 1–0 Velbazhd

Bansko beat Velbazhd 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.