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Velbazhd vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Velbazhd
Velbazhd
FT
1 – 2
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
10/27/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 13Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Velbazhd26%
×Draw24%
Balkan Botevgrad51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velbazhd
1.18
Balkan Botevgrad
1.76

Balkan Botevgrad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 131 away

creates per match

Velbazhd
0.62
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Velbazhd
2.26
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Velbazhd+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velbazhd ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Velbazhd or draw
49%
Velbazhd or Balkan Botevgrad
76%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
74%

Winning margin

Velbazhd wins by 2+
10%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Velbazhd 1+ goals
69%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
33%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
12%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
83%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
52%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Velbazhd (draw refunded)
33%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velbazhd at home — creates 0.62, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velbazhd attack 0.62 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.18

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Velbazhd defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Velbazhd scores more
26%
level
24%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
51%

Balkan Botevgrad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Velbazhd 1–2 Balkan Botevgrad

Balkan Botevgrad beat Velbazhd 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo (Kjustendil (Kyustendil)).