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Balkan Botevgrad vs Velbazhd — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
1 – 0
Velbazhd
Velbazhd
8/8/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad71%
×Draw17%
Velbazhd12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
2.34
Velbazhd
0.82

Balkan Botevgrad creates 185% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 34 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Velbazhd
0.50

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Velbazhd
2.79

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Velbazhd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Velbazhd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
88%
Balkan Botevgrad or Velbazhd
83%
Draw or Velbazhd
29%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
48%
Velbazhd wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
90%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
67%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
41%
Velbazhd 1+ goals
56%
Velbazhd 2+ goals
20%
Velbazhd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
86%
Velbazhd (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Velbazhd away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Velbazhd defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.34

Velbazhd attack 0.50 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
71%
level
17%
Velbazhd scores more
12%

Balkan Botevgrad at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balkan Botevgrad vs Velbazhd

Balkan Botevgrad beat Velbazhd 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 8, 2020.