Velazerimi 77 3–2 Vardar Forino: Result & Stats

Velazerimi 77

FT

3 – 2

Vardar Forino

9/15/2019

Second League · West - 4Vlazrimi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Velazerimi 7755%

×Draw27%

Vardar Forino18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velazerimi 77Expected goals in this matchVardar Forino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.72

Velazerimi 77

1.46

Vardar Forino

0.72

Velazerimi 77 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.10

creates per match

0.63

0.81

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Velazerimi 77

1.10

Vardar Forino

0.63

allows per match

Velazerimi 77

0.81

Vardar Forino

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velazerimi 77 ↓

Vardar Forino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Velazerimi 77 or draw

82%

Velazerimi 77 or Vardar Forino

73%

Draw or Vardar Forino

45%

Winning margin

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+

28%

Vardar Forino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals

77%

Velazerimi 77 2+ goals

43%

Velazerimi 77 3+ goals

18%

Vardar Forino 1+ goals

51%

Vardar Forino 2+ goals

16%

Vardar Forino 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)

75%

Vardar Forino (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velazerimi 77 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velazerimi 77 attack 1.10 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + Velazerimi 77 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Velazerimi 77 scores more

55%

level

27%

Vardar Forino scores more

18%

Velazerimi 77 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Velazerimi 77 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff