Vardar Forino 0–0 Velazerimi 77: Result & Stats

Vardar Forino

FT

0 – 0

Velazerimi 77

11/23/2019

Second League · West - 13Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vardar Forino48%

×Draw25%

Velazerimi 7727%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vardar ForinoExpected goals in this matchVelazerimi 77

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.11

Vardar Forino

1.56

Velazerimi 77

1.11

Vardar Forino creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

1.65

creates per match

0.81

1.41

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Vardar Forino

1.65

Velazerimi 77

0.81

allows per match

Vardar Forino

1.41

Velazerimi 77

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vardar Forino ↓

Velazerimi 77 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vardar Forino or draw

73%

Vardar Forino or Velazerimi 77

75%

Draw or Velazerimi 77

52%

Winning margin

Vardar Forino wins by 2+

24%

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vardar Forino 1+ goals

79%

Vardar Forino 2+ goals

46%

Vardar Forino 3+ goals

21%

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals

67%

Velazerimi 77 2+ goals

30%

Velazerimi 77 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vardar Forino (draw refunded)

64%

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vardar Forino at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vardar Forino attack 1.65 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.81 + Vardar Forino defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vardar Forino scores more

48%

level

25%

Velazerimi 77 scores more

27%

Vardar Forino at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vardar Forino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff