Velazerimi 77 1–1 Labunishta: Result & Stats

Velazerimi 77

FT

1 – 1

Labunishta

9/1/2019

Second League · West - 2Vlazrimi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Velazerimi 7749%

×Draw31%

Labunishta21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velazerimi 77Expected goals in this matchLabunishta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.67

Velazerimi 77

1.20

Labunishta

0.67

Velazerimi 77 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

1.10

creates per match

0.48

0.85

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Velazerimi 77

1.10

Labunishta

0.48

allows per match

Velazerimi 77

0.85

Labunishta

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Labunishta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velazerimi 77 ↓

Labunishta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Velazerimi 77 or draw

79%

Velazerimi 77 or Labunishta

69%

Draw or Labunishta

51%

Winning margin

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+

22%

Labunishta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals

70%

Velazerimi 77 2+ goals

34%

Velazerimi 77 3+ goals

12%

Labunishta 1+ goals

49%

Labunishta 2+ goals

15%

Labunishta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)

70%

Labunishta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velazerimi 77 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Labunishta away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velazerimi 77 attack 1.10 + Labunishta defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Labunishta attack 0.48 + Velazerimi 77 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Velazerimi 77 scores more

49%

level

31%

Labunishta scores more

21%

Velazerimi 77 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Velazerimi 77 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff