Labunishta 0–1 Velazerimi 77: Result & Stats

Labunishta

FT

0 – 1

Velazerimi 77

11/2/2019

Second League · West - 11Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Labunishta51%

×Draw26%

Velazerimi 7723%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LabunishtaExpected goals in this matchVelazerimi 77

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.95

Labunishta

1.54

Velazerimi 77

0.95

Labunishta creates 62% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.59

creates per match

0.81

1.09

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Labunishta

1.59

Velazerimi 77

0.81

allows per match

Labunishta

1.09

Velazerimi 77

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Labunishta+0.00on par

Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Labunishta ↓

Velazerimi 77 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Labunishta or draw

77%

Labunishta or Velazerimi 77

74%

Draw or Velazerimi 77

49%

Winning margin

Labunishta wins by 2+

26%

Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Labunishta 1+ goals

79%

Labunishta 2+ goals

45%

Labunishta 3+ goals

20%

Velazerimi 77 1+ goals

61%

Velazerimi 77 2+ goals

25%

Velazerimi 77 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Labunishta (draw refunded)

69%

Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Labunishta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Labunishta attack 1.59 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.81 + Labunishta defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Labunishta scores more

51%

level

26%

Velazerimi 77 scores more

23%

Labunishta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Labunishta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff