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Velarde vs Atlético Mineros — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Velarde
Velarde
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio Municipal de La Maruca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Velarde41%
×Draw26%
Atlético Mineros33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velarde
1.41
Atlético Mineros
1.25

Velarde creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Velarde
0.94
Atlético Mineros
0.91

allows per match

Velarde
1.59
Atlético Mineros
1.88

finishing

Velarde+0.00on par
Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velarde ↓

Atlético Mineros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Velarde or draw
67%
Velarde or Atlético Mineros
74%
Draw or Atlético Mineros
59%

Winning margin

Velarde wins by 2+
19%
Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Velarde 1+ goals
76%
Velarde 2+ goals
41%
Velarde 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Velarde (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velarde at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velarde attack 0.94 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Velarde defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Velarde scores more
41%
level
26%
Atlético Mineros scores more
33%

Velarde at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Velarde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Velarde 2–2 Atlético Mineros

Velarde and Atlético Mineros drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Maruca in Muriedas.