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Atlético Mineros vs Velarde — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Mineros
Atlético Mineros
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Velarde
Velarde
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 31Estadio Pepín Cadelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Mineros45%
×Draw25%
Velarde30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineros
1.54
Velarde
1.22

Atlético Mineros creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineros
1.09
Velarde
0.76

allows per match

Atlético Mineros
1.68
Velarde
2.00

finishing

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par
Velarde+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineros ↓

Velarde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Mineros or draw
70%
Atlético Mineros or Velarde
75%
Draw or Velarde
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+
22%
Velarde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Mineros 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Mineros 3+ goals
20%
Velarde 1+ goals
70%
Velarde 2+ goals
34%
Velarde 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)
60%
Velarde (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineros at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Velarde away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineros attack 1.09 + Velarde defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Velarde attack 0.76 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Mineros scores more
45%
level
25%
Velarde scores more
30%

Atlético Mineros at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Mineros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Atlético Mineros 4–3 Velarde

Atlético Mineros beat Velarde 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Pepín Cadelo in Reocín.