Vejle 3–1 Hvidovre: Result & Stats | Superliga

Vejle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hvidovre

10/8/2023

Superliga · Round 11Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vejle44%

×Draw25%

Hvidovre31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VejleExpected goals in this matchHvidovre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.24

Vejle

1.55

Hvidovre

1.24

Vejle creates 25% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

1.41

creates per match

0.94

1.54

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Vejle

1.41

Hvidovre

0.94

allows per match

Vejle

1.54

Hvidovre

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vejle+0.00on par

Hvidovre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

Hvidovre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vejle or draw

69%

Vejle or Hvidovre

75%

Draw or Hvidovre

56%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+

22%

Hvidovre wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals

79%

Vejle 2+ goals

46%

Vejle 3+ goals

20%

Hvidovre 1+ goals

71%

Hvidovre 2+ goals

35%

Hvidovre 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)

59%

Hvidovre (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

Hvidovre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 1.41 + Hvidovre defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hvidovre attack 0.94 + Vejle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vejle scores more

44%

level

25%

Hvidovre scores more

31%

Vejle at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff