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Hvidovre vs Vejle — 1. Division 2018

Hvidovre
Hvidovre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vejle
Vejle
5/5/20231. Division1. Division · Promotion Round - 6Pro Ventilation Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hvidovre33%
×Draw26%
Vejle41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hvidovre
1.22
Vejle
1.39

Vejle creates 14% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hvidovre
1.50
Vejle
1.56

allows per match

Hvidovre
1.21
Vejle
0.94

finishing

Hvidovre+0.00on par
Vejle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvidovre ↓

Vejle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hvidovre or draw
59%
Hvidovre or Vejle
74%
Draw or Vejle
67%

Winning margin

Hvidovre wins by 2+
14%
Vejle wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hvidovre 1+ goals
70%
Hvidovre 2+ goals
34%
Hvidovre 3+ goals
12%
Vejle 1+ goals
75%
Vejle 2+ goals
40%
Vejle 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hvidovre (draw refunded)
45%
Vejle (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvidovre at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Vejle away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvidovre attack 1.50 + Vejle defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vejle attack 1.56 + Hvidovre defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hvidovre scores more
33%
level
26%
Vejle scores more
41%

Vejle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hvidovre vs Vejle

Vejle beat Hvidovre 1-0 in 1. Division on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Pro Ventilation Arena in Hvidovre.