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Vejle vs AB Copenhagen — 1. Division 2018

Vejle
Vejle
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
H. Bødker 58'
A. Nielsen 55', 18'
N. Rohde 86'
5/20/20151. Division1. Division · Round 30Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vejle53%
×Draw25%
AB Copenhagen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejle
1.57
AB Copenhagen
0.91

Vejle creates 73% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vejle
2.02
AB Copenhagen
0.88

allows per match

Vejle
0.93
AB Copenhagen
1.13

finishing

Vejle+0.00on par
AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

AB Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vejle or draw
78%
Vejle or AB Copenhagen
75%
Draw or AB Copenhagen
47%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+
28%
AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals
79%
Vejle 2+ goals
46%
Vejle 3+ goals
21%
AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
60%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
23%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)
71%
AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 2.02 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

AB Copenhagen attack 0.88 + Vejle defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vejle scores more
53%
level
25%
AB Copenhagen scores more
22%

Vejle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Nielsen
55'
A. Nielsen
58'
H. Bødker
86'
N. Rohde

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejle vs AB Copenhagen

Vejle beat AB Copenhagen 3-1 in 1. Division on May 20, 2015.

Goals: A. Nielsen (18', 55'), H. Bødker (58'), N. Rohde (86').

The match was played at Vejle Stadion in Vejle.