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AB Copenhagen vs Vejle — 1. Division 2018

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vejle
Vejle
T. Thomsen 21'
Dominic 61', 59' (pen)
3/19/20171. Division1. Division · Round 22Gladsaxe Stadion (Søborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AB Copenhagen24%
×Draw22%
Vejle54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
1.27
Vejle
2.00

Vejle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 36 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
1.50
Vejle
1.67

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
2.33
Vejle
1.03

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
Vejle+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Vejle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
46%
AB Copenhagen or Vejle
78%
Draw or Vejle
76%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
10%
Vejle wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
72%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
36%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
14%
Vejle 1+ goals
86%
Vejle 2+ goals
59%
Vejle 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
31%
Vejle (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Vejle away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 1.50 + Vejle defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vejle attack 1.67 + AB Copenhagen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
24%
level
22%
Vejle scores more
54%

Vejle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
T. Thomsen
59'
DominicPenalty
61'
Dominic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AB Copenhagen vs Vejle

Vejle beat AB Copenhagen 2-1 in 1. Division on March 19, 2017.

Goals: T. Thomsen (21'), Dominic (59' pen, 61').

The match was played at Gladsaxe Stadion (Søborg).