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Vejgaard B vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vejgaard B
Vejgaard B
FT
4 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
3/16/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18NFB Kunstgræs Lindholm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vejgaard B33%
×Draw26%
Aarhus Fremad41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejgaard B
1.20
Aarhus Fremad
1.38

Aarhus Fremad creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vejgaard B
1.25
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Vejgaard B
1.13
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Vejgaard B+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejgaard B ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vejgaard B or draw
59%
Vejgaard B or Aarhus Fremad
74%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
67%

Winning margin

Vejgaard B wins by 2+
14%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Vejgaard B 1+ goals
70%
Vejgaard B 2+ goals
34%
Vejgaard B 3+ goals
12%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
75%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
40%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)
44%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejgaard B at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejgaard B attack 1.25 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Vejgaard B defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vejgaard B scores more
33%
level
26%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
41%

Aarhus Fremad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vejgaard B vs Aarhus Fremad

Vejgaard B beat Aarhus Fremad 4-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at NFB Kunstgræs Lindholm in Nørresundby.