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Aarhus Fremad vs Vejgaard B — League #123 2026

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
3 – 0
Vejgaard B
Vejgaard B
10/19/2019League #123League #123 · Group 2 - 13Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aarhus Fremad79%
×Draw15%
Vejgaard B6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
2.38
Vejgaard B
0.50

Aarhus Fremad creates 376% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.25
Vejgaard B
0.75

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
0.25
Vejgaard B
2.50

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Vejgaard B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
94%
Aarhus Fremad or Vejgaard B
85%
Draw or Vejgaard B
21%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
56%
Vejgaard B wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
91%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
68%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
42%
Vejgaard B 1+ goals
39%
Vejgaard B 2+ goals
9%
Vejgaard B 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
93%
Vejgaard B (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.25 + Vejgaard B defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Vejgaard B attack 0.75 + Aarhus Fremad defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
79%
level
15%
Vejgaard B scores more
6%

Aarhus Fremad at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad vs Vejgaard B

Aarhus Fremad beat Vejgaard B 3-0 in League #123 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.