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Vegalta Sendai vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
3/8/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 4Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai35%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vegalta Sendai
1.27
V-varen Nagasaki
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 143 away

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.28
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.22
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw
61%
Vegalta Sendai or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
65%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
15%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
72%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
36%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
14%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
74%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
39%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
47%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more
35%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
39%

V-varen Nagasaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vegalta Sendai vs V-varen Nagasaki

Vegalta Sendai and V-varen Nagasaki drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.