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V-varen Nagasaki vs Vegalta Sendai — J2 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
3/2/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki42%
×Draw25%
Vegalta Sendai32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.48
Vegalta Sendai
1.25

V-varen Nagasaki creates 18% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 82 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.65
Vegalta Sendai
1.37

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.13
Vegalta Sendai
1.30

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
68%
V-varen Nagasaki or Vegalta Sendai
75%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
58%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
21%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
77%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
43%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
19%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
71%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
36%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
57%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
42%
level
25%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
32%

V-varen Nagasaki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: V-varen Nagasaki 1–2 Vegalta Sendai

Vegalta Sendai beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 in J2 League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Transcosmos Stadium in Isahaya.