Vegalta Sendai 2–0 Roasso Kumamoto: Result & Stats

Vegalta Sendai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Roasso Kumamoto

11/9/2025

J2 League · Round 36Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai40%

×Draw26%

Roasso Kumamoto34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vegalta SendaiExpected goals in this matchRoasso Kumamoto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.27

Vegalta Sendai

1.39

Roasso Kumamoto

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 105 away

1.28

creates per match

1.32

1.22

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.28

Roasso Kumamoto

1.32

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.22

Roasso Kumamoto

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw

66%

Vegalta Sendai or Roasso Kumamoto

74%

Draw or Roasso Kumamoto

60%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

19%

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

75%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

40%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

16%

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

72%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

36%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

54%

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more

40%

level

26%

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

34%

Vegalta Sendai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff