Roasso Kumamoto 0–1 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Roasso Kumamoto

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vegalta Sendai

4/20/2025

J2 League · Round 10Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto32%

×Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Roasso KumamotoExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.44

Roasso Kumamoto

1.24

Vegalta Sendai

1.44

Vegalta Sendai creates 16% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 82 away

1.18

creates per match

1.37

1.51

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.18

Vegalta Sendai

1.37

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto

1.51

Vegalta Sendai

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw

58%

Roasso Kumamoto or Vegalta Sendai

74%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

68%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+

14%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals

71%

Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals

35%

Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals

13%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

76%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

42%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)

44%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.51 · 108 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more

32%

level

26%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

42%

Vegalta Sendai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff