Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vegalta Sendai vs Oita Trinita — J2 League 2018

Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
11/10/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 38Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai40%
×Draw27%
Oita Trinita34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vegalta Sendai
1.33
Oita Trinita
1.20

Vegalta Sendai creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 103 away

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.28
Oita Trinita
1.18

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.22
Oita Trinita
1.38

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par
Oita Trinita+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Oita Trinita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw
66%
Vegalta Sendai or Oita Trinita
73%
Draw or Oita Trinita
60%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
18%
Oita Trinita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
74%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
38%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
15%
Oita Trinita 1+ goals
70%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
34%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
54%
Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

Oita Trinita away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.38 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + Oita Trinita defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oita Trinita attack 1.18 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more
40%
level
27%
Oita Trinita scores more
34%

Vegalta Sendai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Vegalta Sendai 2–1 Oita Trinita

Vegalta Sendai beat Oita Trinita 2-1 in J2 League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.