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Oita Trinita vs Vegalta Sendai — J2 League 2018

Oita Trinita
Oita Trinita
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
8/26/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 32Resonac Dome Oita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Oita Trinita38%
×Draw27%
Vegalta Sendai35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oita Trinita
1.31
Vegalta Sendai
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 82 away

creates per match

Oita Trinita
1.33
Vegalta Sendai
1.37

allows per match

Oita Trinita
1.12
Vegalta Sendai
1.30

finishing

Oita Trinita+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oita Trinita ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oita Trinita or draw
65%
Oita Trinita or Vegalta Sendai
73%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
62%

Winning margin

Oita Trinita wins by 2+
17%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oita Trinita 1+ goals
73%
Oita Trinita 2+ goals
38%
Oita Trinita 3+ goals
14%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
71%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
36%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oita Trinita (draw refunded)
52%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oita Trinita at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.12 · 103 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oita Trinita attack 1.33 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + Oita Trinita defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oita Trinita scores more
38%
level
27%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
35%

Oita Trinita at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oita Trinita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Oita Trinita 2–3 Vegalta Sendai

Vegalta Sendai beat Oita Trinita 3-2 in J2 League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Resonac Dome Oita in Oita.