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Vegalta Sendai vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
M. Olunga 60'
Cristiano 21'
12/1/2020J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vegalta Sendai31%
×Draw26%
Kashiwa Reysol42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vegalta Sendai
1.17
Kashiwa Reysol
1.40

Kashiwa Reysol creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 133 away

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.06
Kashiwa Reysol
1.29

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.50
Kashiwa Reysol
1.27

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw
58%
Vegalta Sendai or Kashiwa Reysol
74%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
69%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
13%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
69%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
33%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
11%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
75%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
41%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
43%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.06 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.29 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more
31%
level
26%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
42%

Kashiwa Reysol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
M. OlungaKashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol · F
8.6

Match Events

21'
Cristiano↳ M. Olunga
55'
Y. Matsushita← T. Hamasaki
55'
T. Ishihara← T. Sasaki
60'
M. Olunga
77'
S. Hyodo← Isaac Cuenca
77'
T. Nishimura← H. Yamada
78'
S. Takahashi← K. Kitazume
79'
H. Nakama← Y. Segawa
86'
Y. Kamiya← A. Esaka

Possession

50%Vegalta

Shots

8Vegalta

Pass accuracy

50%Vegalta

Statistics

VegaltaKashiwa
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots12
5Corners3
14Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots12
1On Target4
6Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box10
2Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
545Total Passes537
433Accurate Passes423
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Vegalta Sendai vs Kashiwa Reysol

Kashiwa Reysol beat Vegalta Sendai 2-0 in J1 League on December 1, 2020.

Goals: Cristiano (21'), M. Olunga (60').

Vegalta Sendai controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.