Kashiwa Reysol 5–1 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vegalta Sendai

Y. Segawa 86'

M. Olunga 73', 58', 40'

H. Nakama 20'

T. Nishimura 48'

7/26/2020

J1 League · Round 7SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol43%

×Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.24

Kashiwa Reysol

1.48

Vegalta Sendai

1.24

Kashiwa Reysol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 65 away

1.32

creates per match

1.11

1.36

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.32

Vegalta Sendai

1.11

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

1.36

Vegalta Sendai

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

68%

Kashiwa Reysol or Vegalta Sendai

74%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

57%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

21%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

77%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

43%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

19%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

71%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

35%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

57%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.32 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.11 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

43%

level

26%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

32%

Kashiwa Reysol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Olunga

Kashiwa Reysol · F

9.2

Match Events

20'

H. Nakama↳ A. Esaka

38'

Y. Segawa← Y. Kamiya

40'

M. Olunga↳ Y. Segawa

46'

T. Ishihara← K. Hachisuka

46'

T. Nishimura← R. Germain

48'

T. Nishimura

58'

M. Olunga↳ A. Esaka

63'

K. Sekiguchi← S. Nakahara

67'

S. Nagasawa← R. Michibuchi

71'

Kyohei Yoshino

73'

M. Olunga↳ M. Mihara

79'

Y. Hiraoka← S. Akasaki

84'

S. Toshima← H. Nakama

86'

Y. Segawa↳ S. Toshima

89'

N. Kawaguchi← T. Koga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KashiwaVegalta

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots13

4Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots13

8On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked5

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

472Total Passes475

390Accurate Passes392

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3