Vegalta Sendai vs Kashima — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 70+ matches
Vegalta Sendai28%
Kashima46%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kashima creates 35% more chances
Season form · 70 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vegalta Sendai ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches
Kashima away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vegalta Sendai attack 1.06 + Kashima defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10
Kashima attack 1.48 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Kashima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
Vissel KobeKashima
Nagoya Grampus
Urawa
Sagan Tosu
Avispa Fukuoka
FC Tokyo
Consadole Sapporo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
Kashiwa Reysol
Shonan Bellmare
Tokushima Vortis
Oita TrinitaVegalta Sendai
Yokohama FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Vegalta Sendai host Kashima on Saturday, 21 November 2020 at 06:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
J1 League: Vegalta Sendai 1–3 Kashima
Kashima beat Vegalta Sendai 3-1 in J1 League on November 21, 2020.
Goals: Everaldo (47'), Juan Alano (57'), A. Ueda (62'), S. Nagasawa (76').
Kashima controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 9.
The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.