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Kashima vs Vegalta Sendai — Friendlies Clubs 2024

Kashima
Kashima
FT
5 – 0
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
7/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kashima59%
×Draw19%
Vegalta Sendai22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
2.50
Vegalta Sendai
1.50

Kashima creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kashima
2.67
Vegalta Sendai
2.33

allows per match

Kashima
0.67
Vegalta Sendai
2.33

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
78%
Kashima or Vegalta Sendai
81%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
41%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
38%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
92%
Kashima 2+ goals
71%
Kashima 3+ goals
45%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
78%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
44%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
73%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 2.67 + Vegalta Sendai defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Vegalta Sendai attack 2.33 + Kashima defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kashima scores more
59%
level
19%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
22%

Kashima at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Kashima
Vegalta
Toru Oniki
Manager: Toru Oniki
Yoshiro Moriyama
Manager: Yoshiro Moriyama

Friendlies Clubs: Kashima 5–0 Vegalta Sendai

Kashima beat Vegalta Sendai 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2026.