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Vegalta Sendai vs Blaublitz Akita — J2 League 2018

Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
10/6/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 34Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai39%
×Draw27%
Blaublitz Akita33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vegalta Sendai
1.28
Blaublitz Akita
1.15

Vegalta Sendai creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 101 away

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.28
Blaublitz Akita
1.08

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai
1.22
Blaublitz Akita
1.28

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par
Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Blaublitz Akita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw
67%
Vegalta Sendai or Blaublitz Akita
73%
Draw or Blaublitz Akita
61%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
18%
Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
72%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
37%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
14%
Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
68%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
32%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
54%
Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more
39%
level
27%
Blaublitz Akita scores more
33%

Vegalta Sendai at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vegalta Sendai vs Blaublitz Akita

Blaublitz Akita beat Vegalta Sendai 1-0 in J2 League on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai in Sendai.