Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blaublitz Akita vs Vegalta Sendai — J2 League 2018

Blaublitz Akita
Blaublitz Akita
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vegalta Sendai
Vegalta Sendai
3/16/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 4Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Blaublitz Akita32%
×Draw28%
Vegalta Sendai40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blaublitz Akita
1.07
Vegalta Sendai
1.23

Vegalta Sendai creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 82 away

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita
0.85
Vegalta Sendai
1.37

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita
1.08
Vegalta Sendai
1.30

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par
Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

Vegalta Sendai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw
60%
Blaublitz Akita or Vegalta Sendai
72%
Draw or Vegalta Sendai
68%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+
12%
Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals
66%
Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals
29%
Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals
9%
Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals
71%
Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals
35%
Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)
45%
Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.85 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.37 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more
32%
level
28%
Vegalta Sendai scores more
40%

Vegalta Sendai at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vegalta Sendai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blaublitz Akita vs Vegalta Sendai

Blaublitz Akita and Vegalta Sendai drew 0-0 in J2 League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Soyu Stadium in Akita.