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Vega Real vs Universidad O&M — Liga Mayor 2020

Vega Real
Vega Real
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universidad O&M
Universidad O&M
J. Barragan 80' (pen), 65'
J. Olasagasti 52'
J. Manterola 38' (pen)
9/13/2025Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 9Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Vega Real36%
×Draw27%
Universidad O&M37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vega Real
1.22
Universidad O&M
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vega Real
1.30
Universidad O&M
1.33

allows per match

Vega Real
1.13
Universidad O&M
1.14

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par
Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

Universidad O&M →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw
63%
Vega Real or Universidad O&M
73%
Draw or Universidad O&M
64%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+
15%
Universidad O&M wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals
70%
Vega Real 2+ goals
34%
Vega Real 3+ goals
12%
Universidad O&M 1+ goals
71%
Universidad O&M 2+ goals
35%
Universidad O&M 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)
50%
Universidad O&M (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Universidad O&M away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + Universidad O&M defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Universidad O&M attack 1.33 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vega Real scores more
36%
level
27%
Universidad O&M scores more
37%

Universidad O&M at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universidad O&M will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
J. ManterolaPenalty
52'
J. Olasagasti
65'
J. Barragan
70'
71'
80'
J. BarraganPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Vega Real 2–2 Universidad O&M

Vega Real and Universidad O&M drew 2-2 in Liga Mayor on September 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Manterola (38' pen), J. Olasagasti (52'), J. Barragan (65', 80' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico La Vega in Concepción de La Vega.