Universidad O&M 0–0 Vega Real: Result & Stats

Universidad O&M

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vega Real

5/22/2024

Liga Mayor · Round 6Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Universidad O&M42%

×Draw27%

Vega Real31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universidad O&MExpected goals in this matchVega Real

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

Universidad O&M

1.33

Vega Real

1.11

Universidad O&M creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 67 away

1.23

creates per match

0.99

1.24

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Universidad O&M

1.23

Vega Real

0.99

allows per match

Universidad O&M

1.24

Vega Real

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universidad O&M+0.00on par

Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universidad O&M ↓

Vega Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Universidad O&M or draw

69%

Universidad O&M or Vega Real

73%

Draw or Vega Real

58%

Winning margin

Universidad O&M wins by 2+

19%

Vega Real wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universidad O&M 1+ goals

74%

Universidad O&M 2+ goals

38%

Universidad O&M 3+ goals

15%

Vega Real 1+ goals

67%

Vega Real 2+ goals

30%

Vega Real 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universidad O&M (draw refunded)

57%

Vega Real (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universidad O&M at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.24 · 78 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universidad O&M attack 1.23 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Universidad O&M defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universidad O&M scores more

42%

level

27%

Vega Real scores more

31%

Universidad O&M at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universidad O&M will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

89'

J. Yambatis Joseph

89'

J. Yambatis Joseph

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff