Vega Real 3–0 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

Vega Real

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

San Cristóbal

J. Yambatis Joseph 85'

J. Gomez 33'

J. Rosario 13'

3/15/2024

Liga Mayor · Round 2Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vega Real65%

×Draw20%

San Cristóbal15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vega RealExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.84

Vega Real

2.03

San Cristóbal

0.84

Vega Real creates 142% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

0.56

1.13

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Vega Real

1.30

San Cristóbal

0.56

allows per match

Vega Real

1.13

San Cristóbal

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

San Cristóbal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw

85%

Vega Real or San Cristóbal

80%

Draw or San Cristóbal

35%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+

40%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals

87%

Vega Real 2+ goals

60%

Vega Real 3+ goals

33%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

57%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

21%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)

82%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + San Cristóbal defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.03

San Cristóbal attack 0.56 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vega Real scores more

65%

level

20%

San Cristóbal scores more

15%

Vega Real at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Rosario

33'

J. Gomez

66'

S. de la Rosa

66'

S. de la Rosa

85'

J. Yambatis Joseph

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff