Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Cristóbal vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Vega Real
Vega Real
J. Duran 88'
J. Dieulemps 63'
V. M. Morales Beato 53'
B. Cundumi 51'
J. Yambatis Joseph 36'
11/7/2025Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 23Estadio Panamericano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

San Cristóbal22%
×Draw23%
Vega Real54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.04
Vega Real
1.77

Vega Real creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
0.65
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

San Cristóbal
2.56
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
46%
San Cristóbal or Vega Real
77%
Draw or Vega Real
78%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
8%
Vega Real wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
65%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
28%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
9%
Vega Real 1+ goals
83%
Vega Real 2+ goals
53%
Vega Real 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
29%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 0.65 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vega Real attack 0.99 + San Cristóbal defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
22%
level
23%
Vega Real scores more
54%

Vega Real at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
J. Yambatis Joseph
51'
B. Cundumi
53'
V. M. Morales Beato
63'
J. Dieulemps
88'
J. Duran

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: San Cristóbal 0–5 Vega Real

Vega Real beat San Cristóbal 5-0 in Liga Mayor on November 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Yambatis Joseph (36'), B. Cundumi (51'), V. M. Morales Beato (53'), J. Dieulemps (63'), J. Duran (88').

The match was played at Estadio Panamericano in San Cristóbal.