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Vega Real vs Atlético de SF — Liga Mayor 2020

Vega Real
Vega Real
FT
2 – 3
Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
7/18/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 17Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vega Real64%
×Draw21%
Atlético de SF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vega Real
2.04
Atlético de SF
0.90

Vega Real creates 127% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vega Real
1.30
Atlético de SF
0.67

allows per match

Vega Real
1.13
Atlético de SF
2.78

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par
Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

Atlético de SF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw
84%
Vega Real or Atlético de SF
79%
Draw or Atlético de SF
36%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+
39%
Atlético de SF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals
87%
Vega Real 2+ goals
60%
Vega Real 3+ goals
33%
Atlético de SF 1+ goals
59%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
23%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)
80%
Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vega Real scores more
64%
level
21%
Atlético de SF scores more
16%

Vega Real at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Vega Real 2–3 Atlético de SF

Atlético de SF beat Vega Real 3-2 in Liga Mayor on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico La Vega in Concepción de La Vega.