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Atlético de SF vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
FT
0 – 2
Vega Real
Vega Real
5/15/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 5Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético de SF33%
×Draw26%
Vega Real41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético de SF
1.21
Vega Real
1.39

Vega Real creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atlético de SF
1.00
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

Atlético de SF
1.78
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

Atlético de SF+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético de SF ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético de SF or draw
59%
Atlético de SF or Vega Real
74%
Draw or Vega Real
67%

Winning margin

Atlético de SF wins by 2+
14%
Vega Real wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético de SF 1+ goals
70%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
34%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
12%
Vega Real 1+ goals
75%
Vega Real 2+ goals
40%
Vega Real 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
44%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético de SF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético de SF attack 1.00 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Atlético de SF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético de SF scores more
33%
level
26%
Vega Real scores more
41%

Vega Real at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vega Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Mayor: Atlético de SF 0–2 Vega Real

Vega Real beat Atlético de SF 2-0 in Liga Mayor on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Moca in Moca.