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VC Warriors vs KAC Soccer — Division One League 2025

VC Warriors
VC Warriors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
1/10/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VC Warriors53%
×Draw24%
KAC Soccer23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VC Warriors
1.75
KAC Soccer
1.06

VC Warriors creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

VC Warriors
2.15
KAC Soccer
1.21

allows per match

VC Warriors
0.92
KAC Soccer
1.36

finishing

VC Warriors+0.00on par
KAC Soccer+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VC Warriors ↓

KAC Soccer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

VC Warriors or draw
77%
VC Warriors or KAC Soccer
76%
Draw or KAC Soccer
47%

Winning margin

VC Warriors wins by 2+
30%
KAC Soccer wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

VC Warriors 1+ goals
83%
VC Warriors 2+ goals
52%
VC Warriors 3+ goals
25%
KAC Soccer 1+ goals
65%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
29%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

VC Warriors (draw refunded)
70%
KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VC Warriors at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

KAC Soccer away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VC Warriors attack 2.15 + KAC Soccer defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

KAC Soccer attack 1.21 + VC Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VC Warriors scores more
53%
level
24%
KAC Soccer scores more
23%

VC Warriors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VC Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: VC Warriors 1–0 KAC Soccer

VC Warriors beat KAC Soccer 1-0 in Division One League on January 10, 2026.