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KAC Soccer vs VC Warriors — Division One League 2025

KAC Soccer
KAC Soccer
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
VC Warriors
VC Warriors
11/30/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAC Soccer48%
×Draw28%
VC Warriors24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Soccer
1.35
VC Warriors
0.86

KAC Soccer creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

KAC Soccer
1.57
VC Warriors
0.86

allows per match

KAC Soccer
0.86
VC Warriors
1.14

finishing

KAC Soccer+0.00on par
VC Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Soccer ↓

VC Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Soccer or draw
76%
KAC Soccer or VC Warriors
72%
Draw or VC Warriors
52%

Winning margin

KAC Soccer wins by 2+
23%
VC Warriors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KAC Soccer 1+ goals
74%
KAC Soccer 2+ goals
39%
KAC Soccer 3+ goals
15%
VC Warriors 1+ goals
58%
VC Warriors 2+ goals
21%
VC Warriors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KAC Soccer (draw refunded)
67%
VC Warriors (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Soccer at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

VC Warriors away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Soccer attack 1.57 + VC Warriors defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

VC Warriors attack 0.86 + KAC Soccer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KAC Soccer scores more
48%
level
28%
VC Warriors scores more
24%

KAC Soccer at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KAC Soccer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Soccer vs VC Warriors

KAC Soccer and VC Warriors drew 1-1 in Division One League on November 30, 2025.