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VC Warriors vs Dormaa — Division One League 2025

VC Warriors
VC Warriors
FT
6 – 2
Dormaa
Dormaa
1/24/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VC Warriors56%
×Draw20%
Dormaa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VC Warriors
2.22
Dormaa
1.39

VC Warriors creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

VC Warriors
2.15
Dormaa
1.86

allows per match

VC Warriors
0.92
Dormaa
2.29

finishing

VC Warriors+0.00on par
Dormaa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VC Warriors ↓

Dormaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

VC Warriors or draw
76%
VC Warriors or Dormaa
80%
Draw or Dormaa
44%

Winning margin

VC Warriors wins by 2+
34%
Dormaa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

VC Warriors 1+ goals
89%
VC Warriors 2+ goals
65%
VC Warriors 3+ goals
38%
Dormaa 1+ goals
75%
Dormaa 2+ goals
40%
Dormaa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

VC Warriors (draw refunded)
70%
Dormaa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VC Warriors at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Dormaa away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VC Warriors attack 2.15 + Dormaa defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.22

Dormaa attack 1.86 + VC Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

VC Warriors scores more
56%
level
20%
Dormaa scores more
24%

VC Warriors at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "VC Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VC Warriors vs Dormaa

VC Warriors beat Dormaa 6-2 in Division One League on January 24, 2026.