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Dormaa vs VC Warriors — Division One League 2025

Dormaa
Dormaa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
VC Warriors
VC Warriors
12/14/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dormaa50%
×Draw24%
VC Warriors25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dormaa
1.67
VC Warriors
1.11

Dormaa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dormaa
2.21
VC Warriors
0.86

allows per match

Dormaa
1.36
VC Warriors
1.14

finishing

Dormaa+0.00on par
VC Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dormaa ↓

VC Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dormaa or draw
75%
Dormaa or VC Warriors
76%
Draw or VC Warriors
50%

Winning margin

Dormaa wins by 2+
27%
VC Warriors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dormaa 1+ goals
81%
Dormaa 2+ goals
50%
Dormaa 3+ goals
23%
VC Warriors 1+ goals
67%
VC Warriors 2+ goals
30%
VC Warriors 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dormaa (draw refunded)
67%
VC Warriors (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dormaa at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

VC Warriors away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dormaa attack 2.21 + VC Warriors defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.67

VC Warriors attack 0.86 + Dormaa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dormaa scores more
50%
level
24%
VC Warriors scores more
25%

Dormaa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dormaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dormaa vs VC Warriors

Dormaa beat VC Warriors 2-1 in Division One League on December 14, 2025.