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Växjö W vs Trelleborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Växjö W
Växjö W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trelleborg W
Trelleborg W
S. Redenstrand 62'
L. Prambrant 23'
10/5/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 22Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Växjö W68%
×Draw18%
Trelleborg W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Växjö W
2.37
Trelleborg W
0.97

Växjö W creates 144% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Växjö W
0.96
Trelleborg W
0.38

allows per match

Växjö W
1.55
Trelleborg W
3.77

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par
Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Trelleborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw
86%
Växjö W or Trelleborg W
82%
Draw or Trelleborg W
32%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+
45%
Trelleborg W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals
91%
Växjö W 2+ goals
68%
Växjö W 3+ goals
42%
Trelleborg W 1+ goals
62%
Trelleborg W 2+ goals
25%
Trelleborg W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)
83%
Trelleborg W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 0.96 + Trelleborg W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.37

Trelleborg W attack 0.38 + Växjö W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Växjö W scores more
68%
level
18%
Trelleborg W scores more
14%

Växjö W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. AkgünVäxjö WVäxjö W · D
8.0

Match Events

23'
L. Prambrant
29'
Bryndís Arna Níelsdóttir
60'
Þ. Ágústsdóttir← V. Svanström
60'
D. Dupuy← V. Giannaka
62'
S. Redenstrand
67'
I. Garmfors← H. Persson
67'
L. Sternfeldt← S. Rewucha
80'
H. Ellingsen← L. Russell
80'
O. Strid← T. Birgerud
80'
E. Filekovic← E. Persson Welin
88'
R. Strand← E. Lenir
89'
Alexandra Jonasson
90+5'
Dessislava Eva Dupuy

Possession

59%Växjö

Shots

13Växjö

Pass accuracy

52%Växjö

Statistics

VäxjöTrelleborg
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots14
1.96Expected Goals (xG)1.33
2Corners2
13Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target5
4Off Target7
4Blocked2
6Inside Box9
7Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
586Total Passes388
469Accurate Passes284
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls7
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Växjö W vs Trelleborg W

Växjö W and Trelleborg W drew 1-1 in Damallsvenskan on October 5, 2024.

Goals: L. Prambrant (23'), S. Redenstrand (62').

Växjö W controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.