Trelleborg W 1–2 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Trelleborg W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Växjö W

L. Sternfeldt 64'

D. Dupuy 90+2', 83'

5/4/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 4Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trelleborg W21%

×Draw19%

Växjö W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trelleborg WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.35

Trelleborg W

1.34

Växjö W

2.35

Växjö W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

0.54

creates per match

1.08

3.62

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Trelleborg W

0.54

Växjö W

1.08

allows per match

Trelleborg W

3.62

Växjö W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw

40%

Trelleborg W or Växjö W

81%

Draw or Växjö W

79%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

9%

Växjö W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

74%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

39%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

15%

Växjö W 1+ goals

90%

Växjö W 2+ goals

68%

Växjö W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

26%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 0.54, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 0.54 + Växjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Växjö W attack 1.08 + Trelleborg W defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Trelleborg W scores more

21%

level

19%

Växjö W scores more

60%

Växjö W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

D. Dupuy

Växjö W · D

8.9

Match Events

46'

O. Strid← S. Rewucha

46'

D. Dupuy← S. Redenstrand

56'

S. Ollerstam← H. Persson

64'

L. Sternfeldt

67'

R. Strand← E. Persson Welin

67'

T. Persson Welin← A. Olsson

68'

V. Svanström← A. Jonasson

68'

T. Johansson← J. Danielsson

80'

A. Egnér← L. Sternfeldt

83'

D. Dupuy

84'

T. Öhman← Þ. Ágústsdóttir

90+1'

Linnea Prambrant

90+2'

D. Dupuy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrelleborgVäxjö

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots31

0.63Expected Goals (xG)4.15

1Corners7

10Fouls4

Shots

8Total Shots31

4On Target10

3Off Target12

1Blocked7

3Inside Box18

5Outside Box13

Passing

37%Possession63%

321Total Passes605

234Accurate Passes503

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls4

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2