Växjö W 2–4 Malmö FF W: Result & Stats

Växjö W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Malmö FF W

S. Amano 60', 56'

S. Fornes 78', 74', 46' (pen)

I. D'Aquila 43'

5/16/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 8Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Växjö W20%

×Draw22%

Malmö FF W58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Växjö WExpected goals in this matchMalmö FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.94

Växjö W

1.04

Malmö FF W

1.94

Malmö FF W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

0.96

creates per match

2.32

1.55

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Växjö W

0.96

Malmö FF W

2.32

allows per match

Växjö W

1.55

Malmö FF W

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par

Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Malmö FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw

42%

Växjö W or Malmö FF W

78%

Draw or Malmö FF W

80%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+

7%

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals

65%

Växjö W 2+ goals

28%

Växjö W 3+ goals

9%

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

86%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

58%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)

26%

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 0.96 + Malmö FF W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Malmö FF W attack 2.32 + Växjö W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Växjö W scores more

20%

level

22%

Malmö FF W scores more

58%

Malmö FF W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Fornes

Malmö FF W · F

8.9

Match Events

43'

I. D'Aquila

46'

S. FornesPenalty

56'

S. Amano↳ S. Redenstrand

57'

Nathalie Hoff Persson

60'

S. Amano↳ M. Kamogawa

63'

I. Belloumou← B. Persson

74'

S. Fornes

78'

S. Fornes↳ M. Persson

81'

M. Nurmela← H. Raijas

90+1'

M. Kristell← T. Skoog

90+2'

P. Winblad← N. Hoff-Persson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VäxjöMalmö

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots13

1.31Expected Goals (xG)2.75

6Corners4

9Fouls5

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target8

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

453Total Passes487

367Accurate Passes398

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1