Malmö FF W 3–1 Växjö W: Result & Stats

Malmö FF W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Växjö W

M. Persson 61'

S. Fornes 45', 10'

L. Russell 35' (pen)

8/30/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 16Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Malmö FF W64%

×Draw20%

Växjö W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmö FF WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.93

Malmö FF W

2.08

Växjö W

0.93

Malmö FF W creates 124% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

2.00

creates per match

1.08

0.78

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Malmö FF W

2.00

Växjö W

1.08

allows per match

Malmö FF W

0.78

Växjö W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmö FF W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Malmö FF W or draw

84%

Malmö FF W or Växjö W

80%

Draw or Växjö W

36%

Winning margin

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

40%

Växjö W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

87%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

61%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

34%

Växjö W 1+ goals

61%

Växjö W 2+ goals

24%

Växjö W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

80%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmö FF W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmö FF W attack 2.00 + Växjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Växjö W attack 1.08 + Malmö FF W defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Malmö FF W scores more

64%

level

20%

Växjö W scores more

16%

Malmö FF W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

S. Fornes↳ C. Nevin

23'

M. Kristell

31'

T. Skoog

35'

L. RussellPenalty

45'

S. Fornes↳ S. Kullberg

53'

M. Kamogawa

56'

E. Hammarback← D. Dupuy

61'

M. Persson↳ T. Skoog

63'

L. Gustafsson← S. Amano

71'

E. Nilsson

75'

K. Kosola← M. Ivanovic

82'

B. Nielsdottir← M. Kamogawa

82'

S. Redenstrand← J. Harrysson

84'

P. Winblad← K. Olesen

88'

A. Plantin← S. Fornes

88'

B. Persson← T. Skoog

Malmö

Växjö

1

Ostergaar

4

Nurmela

21

▼

Dupuy

16

Wieder

7

Karlsson

26

▼

Amano

27

▼

Harrysson

33

Nilsson

8

Bodin

20

▼

Kamogawa

19

⚽

31

15

4

5

A

Kullberg

18

A

Nevin

17

▼

Olesen

11

Kristell

16

A

▼

Skoog

8

⚽

Persson

9

▼

Ivanovic

23

⚽2

▼

Fornes

Manager: Jonas Valfridsson

75'▲K. Kosola←▼M. Ivanovic

84'▲P. Winblad←▼K. Olesen

88'▲A. Plantin←▼S. Fornes

88'▲B. Persson←▼T. Skoog

Malmö FF W substitutes

29Cavander3Kosola6Lilja19Plantin21Bjorklund22Persson24Winblad25Khatawi26Breland

Manager: Olof Fredrik Unogård

56'▲E. Hammarback←▼D. Dupuy

63'▲L. Gustafsson←▼S. Amano

82'▲B. Nielsdottir←▼M. Kamogawa

82'▲S. Redenstrand←▼J. Harrysson

Växjö W substitutes

99Sundelius2Hammarback9Nielsdottir10Svanstrom11Redenstrand14Giannaka15Hogh22Gustafsson

Damallsvenskan: Malmö FF W 3–1 Växjö W

Malmö FF W beat Växjö W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on August 30, 2025.

Goals: S. Fornes (10', 45'), L. Russell (35' pen), M. Persson (61').

The match was played at Eleda Stadion.

Malmö FF W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Malmö FF W 3–1 Växjö W