Växjö W 2–3 Kristianstad W: Result & Stats

Växjö W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Kristianstad W

M. Kamogawa 45'

S. Redenstrand 33'

B. Olsson 82', 55'

A. Egner 25'

5/3/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 6Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Växjö W27%

×Draw24%

Kristianstad W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Växjö WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.67

Växjö W

1.17

Kristianstad W

1.67

Kristianstad W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 79 away

0.96

creates per match

1.78

1.55

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Växjö W

0.96

Kristianstad W

1.78

allows per match

Växjö W

1.55

Kristianstad W

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw

51%

Växjö W or Kristianstad W

76%

Draw or Kristianstad W

73%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+

11%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals

69%

Växjö W 2+ goals

33%

Växjö W 3+ goals

11%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

81%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

50%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)

35%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 0.96 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Växjö W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Växjö W scores more

27%

level

24%

Kristianstad W scores more

49%

Kristianstad W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Olsson

Kristianstad W · F

8.3

Match Events

5'

Emilija Petrović

25'

A. Egner

33'

S. Redenstrand↳ S. Amano

43'

Suzu Amano

45'

M. Kamogawa↳ C. Minas

55'

B. Olsson

57'

M. Janzen← F. Widen

57'

A. Sayer← K. Tryggvadottir

65'

Vasiliki Giannaka

66'

V. Giannaka← S. Amano

75'

77'

82'

85'

89'

R. Siemsen← B. Olsson

90+6'

E. Broddheimer← A. Nilsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VäxjöKristianstad

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots6

3.09Expected Goals (xG)2.02

8Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

22Total Shots6

6On Target4

7Off Target0

9Blocked2

15Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

523Total Passes311

405Accurate Passes194

77%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0